While many Democrats are alarmed at signs that President Donald Trump is trying to rig the 2026 midterm elections, a top Republican strategist argued on Wednesday that there is bad news for his own party’s prospects — although Democrats also have reason for caution.
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“The first of the Democrats’ five advantages is that it’s a midterm,” wrote Karl Rove, a former top adviser to President George W. Bush, for The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. “The party that doesn’t hold the White House has made gains in all but three midterms since 1900. Very popular presidents kept the out-party from gaining seats in 1934, 1998 and 2002.”
He added, “The second is Mr. Trump’s dismal 56.1 [percent] disapproval rating, putting him upside down by 15 points. This is a consistent problem for him—his popularity has been declining since May 2025.”
Additionally Rove pointed to the sour state of the American economy, with Trump’s marks there being at a mere 36.4 percent. He also pointed out that Democrats have an advantage on the generic ballot, with voters favoring them by 48.1 percent to Republicans’ 43.1 percent on average.
Finally Rove pointed to “the enthusiasm gap. Virtually every poll shows Democrats more fired up than Republicans. GOP voters tend to be older, and thus more likely to turn out even when unenthusiastic. But enthusiasm will help the Democrats.”
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Yet this does not mean Democrats have no reason for concern.
“The 35 Senate seats up this year (including two special elections) are mostly in Southern, Midwestern and Rocky Mountain states where Democrats are weak,” Rove wrote. “To hold their majority Republicans must defend incumbents in Maine, Ohio and Alaska and hold on to open seats in North Carolina, Texas and Iowa.” He added that this will be especially difficult with Republicans have pickup opportunities in states like Michigan and New Hampshire.
He also pointed out that Republicans have advantages in terms of redistricting, fundraising and Democrats’ low approval ratings as a party. Democrats only receive “a 38.1 [percent] favorable rating, lower than the GOP’s 39.3 [percent] or Mr. Trump’s 41.1 [percent].”
At the same time, Rove acknowledged that Republicans have squandered one potential advantage through their lack of messaging. The Republican guru had previously criticized Trump for focusing on “frivolities” like the Super Bowl halftime show or trying to conquer Greenland rather than issues that are of concern to ordinary Americans. He has also previously warned that Iran could raise oil prices, attack the US or in some other way disrupt Republican chances of prevailing during the midterms.
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