With the midterms just around the corner, one of President Donald Trump’s most touted policies is not only dragging the GOP down, but may have already cost them battleground states that needed to prevent the Democrats from flipping Congress. This is according to a column published in the Hill on Monday, which argues that “Republicans will pay for Trump’s tariffs in the midterms.”
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Following months of bad news on the economy. It seemed for a moment like Republicans were getting something of a break. As the Hill explains. “After a year in which the war with Iran sent gas prices soaring and pushed inflation to multi-year highs, both June and July’s Consumer Price Index came in tame. Even grocery prices slipped for the first time in months. But then President Trump returned to his longtime obsession: tariffs.”
When trade negotiations with Canada fell apart, Trump slapped the country with 50 percent tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Canadian goods, reviving what the Wall Street Journal called “the Dumbest Trade War in History.” According to the Hill, “The timing could hardly be worse for Republicans, who had spent months straining to soothe voters’ concerns over the cost of living and attempting to build a midterm message around affordability. Now, tariffs and trade chaos are back in the news, and Republicans are likely going to pay the price.”
As the Wall Street Journal noted, “Republicans are already getting pounded on the campaign trail over [Trump’s] tariffs and inflation.” And as polling confirms, the majority of Americans, 56 percent, ranked cost of living concerns among the top issues facing the country. Even among Trump voters, a plurality of 33 percent cite rising prices as “among the biggest failures of Trump’s second term.” And voters have long expressed a dislike of tariffs. One poll in March revealed that 72 percent of Americans — including 60 percent of Republicans — believe Trump’s tariffs have a negative impact.
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But the number that means the most now, with the midterms just around the corner, is that 54 percent of voters in battleground states disapprove of tariffs. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — states that have toss-up midterms that would hand Democrats power over the House and maybe even the Senate. What’s more, writes the Hill, “compounding Republican concerns is that the states most affected by these new Canada tariffs are vital to Republicans’ hopes of holding onto the Senate. Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska and Ohio are all extremely vulnerable to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, and all have hotly contested races this fall.” Overall, writes the Hill, “voters now prefer Democrats’ approach to affordability over the Republicans’ approach by an 8-point margin (36 percent to 28 percent). Moreover, Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot now sits slightly above 6 points, the widest margin of the cycle,” and Trump’s approval is at historic lows.
Republicans are well aware that the tariffs are a problem for them. As the Hill explains, “Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) warned that the tariffs are causing ‘tension’ and that ‘the party that owns that tension…will probably suffer the consequences in November.’” And “aware that tariffs are deeply unpopular and hoping to defend a key Senate seat, Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) called the Canada tariffs a ‘mistake’ before skipping an event with Vice President JD Vance in the state last week, where he defended the duties.” Former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH), who is trying to win back his old seat in New Hampshire, piled on, saying, “It makes no sense to start a trade war with our closest neighbor.”
The Hill concludes with a warning for Republicans, writing, “Trump may not care about the midterms since he is not on the ballot, but he is seemingly intent on speeding up the date he will become a lame duck. And, in doing so, drastically increasing the chances of the ‘all-out oversight’ investigations into himself and his family that Democrats are already preparing. Ultimately, the 2026 midterms were always going to be an uphill battle for Republicans, as they always are for the party in power. In order to keep both the House and Senate — or at least one — the GOP needed a coherent affordability agenda and policies which lowered costs and strengthened the economy. Instead, Republicans got renewed tariffs, for which they will likely pay the price in November.”
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