On Monday, a Texas state representative warned his fellow Republicans that the entire state is about to “go blue.” And as CNN Senior Political Reporter Aaron Blake notes, “This isn’t just a Texas GOP legislator; it’s one who helped Trump try to overturn the 2020 election.”
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He was referencing a post by State Rep. Briscoe Cain, who declared, “If the election were held tomorrow, all state wide races go blue.” Cain was responding to a comment on a Fox News article about a wave of data centers coming to Texas, which had prompted one commenter to assert, “Blue Texas ain’t coming this year, but it’s definitely coming soon.” Polling has shown that data centers are broadly disliked, with some 60-75 percent of Americans opposing them, and President Donald Trump’s endorsement of data centers and alignment with AI companies has added to the political headwinds faced by the GOP in the looming midterms. According to Cain, however, the midterms may already be a done deal – and decisively not in Republicans’ favor. “Why do you say that?” asked the first commenter. Cain’s reply was simple: “Reality.”
As Blake noted, this is a revealing statement considering Cain’s past difficulties regarding electoral reality. In 2020, he traveled to Pennsylvania the day after Election Day to join Trump’s legal team in contesting the victory of President Joe Biden, conducting an investigation that was ultimately slapped down in court. What’s more, as CN’s Patrick Svitek points out, Cain’s comments are particularly “striking” as they come “from a Texas GOP state representative who’s not running for reelection.” Many conservative candidates have distanced themselves from Trump recently in an effort to avoid blowback from his historic unpopularity, while more firmly seated Republicans have generally attempted to avoid anything that could look like criticism.
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Cain later doubled down on his statement, explaining at length, “The point I was making and will continue to make is that Republican voters feel too comfortable and are not as intense about this election as they should be. We have more voters than the left in Texas, but we have to vote. I will be working to turn out every vote we can and am willing to tell people that if they don’t vote, Texas will go blue. What I’m seeing is overconfidence among Republican voters, and overconfidence can lead to fewer folks showing up, which can lead to Republican losses. The data is troubling for Republicans statewide, but the gap between Democrat motivation to vote and Republican motivation could cost us the election. I am confident we can prevail, but no one should assume Republicans will win just because they have for 30 or so years.”
His warning to the GOP comes on the heels of a Fox News poll that shows the Texas Democratic challenger for the Senate, James Talarico, leads Trump’s hand-picked candidate Ken Paxton. According to the Fox survey, “Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52 percent favorable vs. 44 percent unfavorable), while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40 percent vs. 58 percent). Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32 percent) than Democrats do Talarico (5 percent)… All this gives Talarico a slim 2-point edge over Paxton (51-49 percent).” Other non-Fox polls have shown the Talarico’s margin to be several points wider.
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