Voters in the key swing state of North Carolina were baffled when speaking to The Bulwark’s top pollster, expressing bewilderment at how much their GOP Senate candidate has disappeared.
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Despite the state not going for a Democratic presidential candidate since Barack Obama in 2008, the party remains bullish on its prospects in this year’s midterms. While other, more reliably blue states have seen races become uncertain, former Gov. Roy Cooper remains a near-lock to win his Senate race in North Carolina, flipping the seat held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis.
In the latest episode of The Bulwark’s “Focus Group” podcast, host and preeminent pollster Sarah Longwell detailed how remarkably consistent North Carolina has remained as a purple state, regularly going for GOP presidential candidates, but also routinely electing Democrats to other offices. Notably, Gov. Josh Stein won his office by double digits in the 2024 race, the same year that Trump carried the state on his path to reelection.
Cooper, Longwell noted with guest Chris Cooper, remains a notably popular statewide figure in North Carolina, with a solid track record and no major scandals to speak of. By contrast, his opponent, ex-RNC chair and GOP nominee Michael Whatley, has much lower name recognition in the state, setting himself up for a major uphill battle against the former governor.
In the face of that challenge, Longwell noted that Whatley has seemingly gone “MIA” in the state, as the midterms enter their crucial home stretch. This has not gone unnoticed by voters, with participants making their feelings known during one of her recent focus group sessions.
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“I have an observation about Michael Whatley and the advertising,” one participant said. “There are no ads for him, and we are covered up in Roy Cooper ads. Almost to the point that I was like, is he still running? I saw some PAC group that came out with something against him. So I was like, oh yeah, he’s still running because we’re still criticizing. So I just haven’t seen much about him. He hasn’t made a presence. Does he really want it? I’m not sure.”
“I consider myself to be pretty, I mean, like aware of politics, but in this case, I don’t think I’ve seen anything good about him,” another participant added. “I haven’t seen anything negative about him. I’ve just seen more good and negative about Cooper versus Whatley.”
Another participant, a woman describing herself as “undecided,” expressed frustration at the race, saying that she is no fan of Cooper, but only knows Whatley as a “big Trump guy,” adding that she is also not fond of the president right now.
“I mean, when I was listening to these focus groups, and I listened to so many and so many of these races, to listen to a bunch of Trump voters, be like, I don’t know, is this guy even here? What’s he doing? What’s he stand for? That is a real indictment,” Longwell said. “Because it means they’re like, who cares about this guy?”
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