A year and a half into Donald Trump’s second presidency, Republican strategists fear that his goals will face major obstacles if the 2026 midterms go the way of Democrats. A Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives could bring another impeachment, while a Democratic U.S. Senate majority would make it difficult for him to get his nominees confirmed. And according to The Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last, Trump is sabotaging his own agenda at a time when he can least afford to.
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The conservative journalist cites the Iran war and tariffs as two examples of Trump doing everything he can to hurt himself politically.
“(Conservative journalist) David Frum often says that Trumpism holds many secrets, but no mysteries,” Last explains. “Generally, this is correct. But Iran presents us with the first genuine mystery of Trump’s presidency: Why didn’t Trump just leave?…. I have a theory. Iran has vexed Trump because it brings into conflict his two controlling impulses: Always move forward. Push past old problems by creating new problems. Win every fight. Never cede dominance.”
The Never Trump conservative continues, “Iran is a trap because in the ancient part of Trump’s lizard brain, he knows he should moving on to the next thing. Maybe invading Cuba. Maybe sending an expeditionary force to Greenland. Maybe laying the groundwork to steal an election. He knows that he can’t get bogged down with Iran. He has to press on and create another drama in which he’s the star. But on the other hand, Trump understands that as things stand, he lost and Iran won.”
Trump, Last argues, is suffering a “loss of face” that “compels” him “to push for dominance.”
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“With Iran, Trump is still in control of his own decisions,” Last writes. “He would have to choose to accept submission. He has not demonstrated the self-mastery to do such a thing, even if it would be in his best interests.”
Although Trump’s tariff policy experienced a major setback at the U.S. Supreme Court, he is now calling for new tariffs on Canada — a move that Last describes as another act of self-sabotage.
“You may recall that Donald Trump unilaterally imposed a bunch of tariffs, and that, after more than a year of deliberation, the Supreme Court decided that he couldn’t do that,” Last observes. “And then, Trump said: Whatever. I’ll do the tariffs another way.
Well, we’re at the other way. The Liberation Day tariffs were created under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. After the Court struck them down…. Trump pivoted and imposed substantially similar tariffs, but said he was using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The problem is that Section 122 has a time limit, and that limit hits this Friday, meaning that the tariffs should go poof. What’s a president to do?”
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