Anticipating a major potential blue wave in the coming midterms, numerous Republicans in vulnerable districts have, according to The Hill, adopted a “risky strategy” for success: embracing President Donald Trump, despite his cratering approval.
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“Republicans in swing-seat House districts are welcoming President Trump to their districts and embracing him as the leader of the party despite his underwater approval ratings,” the Saturday report explained. “It is a somewhat surprising move for vulnerable lawmakers who might be expected to distance themselves from the president for fear of alienating critical swing voters.”
Breaking down this unexpected tactic further, The Hill bluntly noted that Trump “is not popular,” with Real Clear Politics putting his average approval rating at around 40 percent. Traditionally, the party that occupies the White House does poorly in the midterms, as voters vent their frustrations with the president, and this has held true even for presidents with much higher approval than Trump. With that in mind, most observers have predicted that Republicans would aim to steer clear of him as much as possible leading up to November, but strategists who spoke to The Hill explained why some members of Congress have opted to do the opposite.
“National Republican strategists, though, see using the president’s popularity with the GOP base as a way to boost turnout and defy historical midterm trends that foretell losses for the president’s party,” The Hill explained. “Republicans can afford only a handful of losses and retain their slender majority.”
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“We want to have the largest electorate possible. We showed in 2024 that when everybody comes out to vote in a presidential election, we were successful in Pennsylvania,” Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a first-term Pennsylvania Republican in a vulnerable district, told the outlet. “I flipped a seat. Dave McCormick flipped a Senate seat. President Trump won. We want large voter turnout, and so in an election like this, we know from past elections that President Trump does drive Republican turnout, and so we would like to see everybody getting out to vote.”
In addition to a recent campaign appearance for Mackenzie, Trump has also been doing the rounds to try to muster support for other Republicans in swing districts, including Iowa Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks. While some of these lawmakers have embraced Trump enthusiastically, The Hill noted that others, like Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, are “toeing a careful line.”
“He’s the president of the United States. Many of my constituents do support him, many others don’t,” Lawler told the outlet last month. “Ultimately, you have to be able to engage with and deal with the presidents. Why, when Joe Biden was president and he came to my district, I showed up. Donald Trump’s president, came to my district, I showed up. You have to be able to work with the president.”
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