The pathway for Democrats taking over the U.S. Senate goes through Maine, but Republicans just got some good news on that front.
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Polling from May showed that Democratic challenger Graham Platner had a lead of about seven to nine points, which began to tighten as the summer went on.
A new poll from shows Sen. Susan Collins now has a slight lead.
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll published on June 29 shows Platner leading with just two points.
It’s the first poll in the past year to show Collins leading. It comes after she and the Republican Party have spent about three times as much as the Democrats in the race.
Maine Public Radio cited data from AdImpact in a report Wednesday, showing “So far, GOP-aligned committees have spent $19 million on broadcast and digital ads on the contest, while Democratic groups have spent $6.4 million.”
Platner is “besieged by attacks from Republican super PACs. Pine Tree Results, a super PAC financed by well-heeled donors and connected to Collins’ fundraising apparatus, has already spent nearly $10 million in attack ads,” the report continued. “A Platner campaign memo says the group is spending roughly $1.5 million a week, with $10 million more expected by early August.”
Former Republican Party director Reince Priebus, who now works as a Fox News political analyst, told Dana Perino that it “makes sense” because six years ago, Collins won by nine points, reported Mediaite. But a lot has happened in those six years, namely that Collins, who claimed to be pro-choice, supported Supreme Court justices who ultimately brought down the nationwide right to reproductive freedom.
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One problem Collins faces, said Priebus, it’s a “midterm turnout” election, meaning the most ardent supporters of each candidate will turn out. Political analysts explain that the midterms raise the question of “enthusiasm,” and which supporters will drag themselves to the polls no matter what. An Ipsos poll in May shows that enthusiasm is dominated by Democrats.
A June NPR/PBS News/Marist poll similarly shows that Americans are growing increasingly angry about the affordability crisis and Iran war, both of which aren’t good indicators for Republicans.
Priebus said that Collins must do more to prop up her likability. He told Fox she should “spend money on her own personality. And then she needs to do what I said before — turnout surgery — which is find the people that vote in Maine in a midterm election.”
He said that Collins’ numbers in Rural Maine are “way up.” The problem is that elections are won and lost by individual votes, not areas. Fewer people live in rural areas.
The Fox poll also warns that Platner’s numbers on the question of whether he lacks the “judgment to serve” stand at 54 percent.
One question keeps popping up: whether there are any other scandals that could come out against Platner. Often, campaigns save up information for an “October surprise,” when the maximum number of voters are casting ballots. A June report from Semafor said that Democrats are “bracing for more dirt.”
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