{"id":4129,"date":"2026-07-30T05:36:57","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T05:36:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=4129"},"modified":"2026-07-30T05:36:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T05:36:57","slug":"polling-confirms-theres-only-one-way-for-trump-to-win-and-its-not-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=4129","title":{"rendered":"Polling confirms: There’s only one way for Trump to win \u2014 and it’s not good"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

President Donald Trump has been widely accused of planning on rigging the 2026 midterm elections, and according to a polling expert, that may be his best chance of not losing control of one or both houses of Congress.<\/p>\n

Read more Republican issues ominous warning to McConnell aides after senator vanishes<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201c2 ALL-TIME lows in Trump job approval over both terms today,\u201d tweeted polling expert Larry Sabato on Wednesday. \u201cCNN has it at 34 [percent]. QUINNIPIAC has it at 32 [percent].\u201d<\/p>\n

Sabato has a long history of being an objective polling analyst. He recently argued, through his website Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball, that 213 House seats are safe, likely or leaning Republican while 2017 are safe, likely or leaning Democratic. That means he argues 15 seats can be considered \u201ctoss ups,\u201d which could go either way, and that gives both parties a very slim margin to claim the House of Representatives in November 2026.<\/p>\n

He was similarly impartial in breaking down control of the Senate. Democrats would need to hold all 47 of their seats and flip four Republican ones, requiring them to pick up some combination of Maine, Alaska, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and other swing states.<\/p>\n

Yet they have an advantage in Trump\u2019s unpopularity. Speaking exclusively with AlterNet prior to the 4th of July, Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik pointed to Trump\u2019s bungling of America\u2019s 250th anniversary celebration as an example of this. Specifically he noted that \u2014 unlike President Gerald Ford, the Republican who happened to occupy the White House during America\u2019s 200th anniversary celebration \u2014 Trump made the event explicitly partisan, and thereby squandered a chance to capitalize on patriotic good will.<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018Can\u2019t prove that\u2019: Critics howl as Fox News shuts down a Tuberville lie<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is to some degree an apples to oranges comparison, because Ford was on the ballot and Trump is not, and the country was also a lot different,\u201d Kondik told AlterNet. \u201cBut I do think in the midst of a trying decade, Ford’s positive messaging helped cut through the negativity and capitalized on good feelings about the bicentennial. But there were many other reasons Ford came back, including uncertainty about whether Carter was up to the task of being president.\u201d<\/p>\n

Elaborating on how this was a missed opportunity for Trump, Kondik argued that \u201cif Trump is as weak as he is now or weaker at the time of the election, and Republicans have a poor showing (losing the House and losing the Senate or at least losing one or more races in red states), it’ll be easy to point to Trump’s standing as a driving force in those results.\u201d<\/p>\n

He continued, \u201cIf that does happen, there will have been many missed opportunities for Trump, and perhaps how he handled the Fourth would be one of those (although in all likelihood other things would have been more important, like the decision to attack Iran and the subsequent impact on gas prices along with a general inability to address the big \u2018affordability\u2019 questions driving the election).\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018He was warned\u2019: Insiders say Trump knew consequences of disastrous scheme<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump has been widely accused of planning on rigging the 2026 midterm elections, and according to a polling expert, that may be his best chance of not losing control of one or both houses of Congress.\u201c2 ALL-TIME lows in Trump job approval over both terms today,\u201d tweeted polling expe…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nPolling confirms: There's only one way for Trump to win \u2014 and it's not good - Next Address America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=4129\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Polling confirms: There's only one way for Trump to win \u2014 and it's not good - 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