{"id":3661,"date":"2026-07-21T09:05:48","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T09:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=3661"},"modified":"2026-07-21T09:05:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T09:05:48","slug":"iowa-is-acting-differently-expert-issues-stark-warning-on-gops-future-in-red-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=3661","title":{"rendered":"Iowa is acting ‘differently’: Expert issues stark warning on GOP’s future in red state"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Political expert Charlie Cook, the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Monday he thinks Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand will win Iowa\u2019s gubernatorial election, but the U.S. Senate race between State Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson may not be as competitive as Democrats might think.<\/p>\n

Read more Trump\u2019s economy hasn\u2019t sunk the GOP because the Dems blew it: analysis<\/a><\/p>\n

Cook said Iowa is no longer considered a \u201cswing\u201d state and \u201chasn\u2019t been for a long time,\u201d adding that he does not believe Iowa\u2019s open U.S. Senate seat will flip due to hyperpolarization in modern politics.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m a bit more skeptical in federal races because to me, if a Republican is disaffected this year, they\u2019re a heck of a lot more likely to not show up or to skip over various offices on the ballot than they are to vote for a Democrat,\u201d Cook said. \u201cWe\u2019ll have to wait and see whether the Iowa Senate flips, but I\u2019d give it probably a 1 in 4 chance.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Cook Political Report changed its rating of Iowa\u2019s U.S. Senate race from \u201clikely Republican\u201d to \u201cleans Republican\u201d on June 3. Polls released in early July showed a tight race, with Turek leading a FOX News poll released July 2 by 4 percentage points and Hinson leading a July 1 New York Times\/Siena poll by 2 points.<\/p>\n

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Cook participated Monday in a Zoom call with the Iowa Writers\u2019 Collaborative where he discussed the national political landscape, saying the party of the president typically sees lower turnout during midterm elections.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat typically happens is that people that either belong to, or lean towards a president\u2019s party, sometimes they\u2019re a little complacent,\u201d Cook said. \u201cSometimes they\u2019re a little disappointed. Sometimes they\u2019re deeply disillusioned. Rarely are they fired up, energized, and so they just simply don\u2019t turn out in midterm elections nearly the way they do in presidential years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cook said Iowa is behaving \u201cdifferently\u201d in the 2026 election cycle compared to other states, opening the door for the governor\u2019s seat and a couple of U.S. House races to flip to Democrats. Cook did not cite specific Iowa congressional districts he believes will flip.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe governor\u2019s race, I think it probably will flip,\u201d Cook said. \u201cThere\u2019s some House races that may skip over a little bit, but we\u2019re not seeing as much of that in other states as we are in Iowa, and we\u2019ll have to wait and see whether the Iowa Senate (seat) flips.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cook highlighted the importance of independent voters, a small number of people who often sway elections.<\/p>\n

Read more The margins are razor-thin \u2014but one party will likely Congress: experts<\/a><\/p>\n

Cook said \u201cticket splitting,\u201d voting for candidates in both parties, is rare nowadays, and independents will vote for one specific party \u201c90 to 95% of the time.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cReally, only 10% of all registered voters are really independents that vote,\u201d Cook said. \u201cThey tend to be fickle. They tend to get buyer\u2019s remorse. They tend to turn against a president on a moment\u2019s notice, and stay that way, so they disproportionately break for the opposition party these days.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cook cited that Trump\u2019s average disapproval rating hovers around 50%, while his approval across multiple polls sits at approximately 39 to 40%. Based on those numbers, Cook said he believes Republicans will lose seats in Congress.<\/p>\n

Cook added that the party that controls the presidency has lost House and Senate seats in all but two midterm elections since World War II.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny polling data you look at, the energy level difference between Democrats and Republicans is huge this year, with Democrats hyper-motivated and Republicans not so much, and independents breaking very solidly against the president and Republicans as well,\u201d Cook said. \u201cThis midterm seems to be shaping up exactly like the historic norm.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ranked-choice voting<\/h2>\n

Cook also discussed his displeasure with the current voting system in the U.S., citing Maine and Alaska as two states that have successfully implemented ranked-choice voting. Ranked-choice voting is an alternative voting system where if a candidate receives at least 50% of first-place votes, they win the election. If no candidate receives a majority, a series of instant run-off elections are held until a candidate receives 50%.<\/p>\n

The purpose of ranked-choice voting is to fight against the United States\u2019 two-party system by encouraging more third-party candidates, with the hope that Republicans and Democrats would look to appeal to a broader coalition.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think ranked choice is a good thing,\u201d Cook said. \u201cI think primaries where independents are allowed to vote in either party\u2019s primary, I think that\u2019s pretty healthy. Our system was designed by the founders, and it worked really well for 200 years, and for the last 50, it has not.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Trump niece warns he\u2019s \u2018profoundly insecure\u2019 and can\u2019t stop repeating the same mistake<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Political expert Charlie Cook, the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Monday he thinks Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand will win Iowa\u2019s gubernatorial election, but the U.S. Senate race between State Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson may not be as competitive as Democra…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nIowa is acting 'differently': Expert issues stark warning on GOP's future in red state - Next Address America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=3661\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iowa is acting 'differently': Expert issues stark warning on GOP's future in red state - Next Address America\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Political expert Charlie Cook, the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Monday he thinks Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand will win Iowa\u2019s gubernatorial election, but the U.S. Senate race between State Rep. 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