{"id":2512,"date":"2026-06-30T19:09:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T19:09:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2512"},"modified":"2026-06-30T19:09:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T19:09:24","slug":"midterm-victory-comes-down-to-one-very-angry-demographic-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2512","title":{"rendered":"Midterm victory comes down to one very angry demographic: analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A Democratic strategist is warning Democratic voters against complacency, arguing that the \u201cblowout\u201d midterm many are expecting could vanish \u2014 and the fix rests with one key demographic.<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018Stinks to high heaven\u2019: Trump\u2019s favorite newspaper sick of his family\u2019s corruption<\/a><\/p>\n

Writing at The Hill, Celinda Lake says that Republicans still have a massive war chest, Trump loyalists are still winning big, and redistricting efforts are likely to benefit the GOP.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats should be worried,\u201d says Lake. \u201cAlthough President Trump\u2019s approval ratings have been in the doldrums and inflation is angering MAGA voters, the fragile agreement with Iran might help Trump\u2019s numbers and revive Republicans\u2019 chances in November.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lake says that Democrats should not rely on Trump administration \u201cmissteps\u201d to take back control of Congress in November, but rather must \u201cswell\u201d their turnout at the ballot box.<\/p>\n

That turnout relies on women voters \u2014 and specifically, those women she calls \u201cskippers\u201d and \u201cflippers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Skippers are Democratic voters who did not turn out in 2024. Flippers are disaffected Republicans who could choose to vote Democratic.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump has a serious problem when it comes to women\u2019s votes,\u201d says Lake. Citing a recent New York Times-Siena poll, she notes that nearly two-thirds (66 percent) of women disapprove of Trump\u2019s performance. Another poll showed Democrats with a 21-point lead among women over Republicans. And 60 percent of young women disapprove of Trump as well.<\/p>\n

Read more The bad news buried in the Supreme Court\u2019s birthright citizenship ruling<\/a><\/p>\n

There were millions of Democratic skippers, says Lake. And even convincing a small percentage of flippers to vote Democratic could \u201cswing the outcome\u201d of the election, as they\u2019re not just adding one Democratic vote but reducing one Republican vote.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy team\u2019s analysis of 2024 exit polls showed that if less than 2 percent of Trump\u2019s White non-college educated voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin had gone for Harris, she would have won the election,\u201d Lake writes. \u201cIt\u2019s likely that flipping a similarly small percentage of women would make the difference this year, even in newly-minted Republican districts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other polls show \u201ca majority of non-college-educated White Americans now disapprove of Trump\u2019s performance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lake warns that while Republicans ought to be frightened by these numbers, bad polling numbers do not automatically translate into votes for Democrats.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to reach and persuade these women to turn out, especially if the Iran war actually ends and gas prices fall,\u201d she writes. \u201cDemocrats must do the work to mobilize skippers and create flippers. If we want to lock up a victory in November, these women hold the keys.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more Steve Bannon rips Trump official for spouting statistics \u2018nobody believes\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Democratic strategist is warning Democratic voters against complacency, arguing that the \u201cblowout\u201d midterm many are expecting could vanish \u2014 and the fix rests with one key demographic.Writing at The Hill, Celinda Lake says that Republicans still have a massive war chest, Trump loyalists are still …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nMidterm victory comes down to one very angry demographic: analysis - Next Address America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2512\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Midterm victory comes down to one very angry demographic: analysis - Next Address America\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A Democratic strategist is warning Democratic voters against complacency, arguing that the \u201cblowout\u201d midterm many are expecting could vanish \u2014 and the fix rests with one key demographic.Writing at The Hill, Celinda Lake says that Republicans still have a massive war chest, Trump loyalists are still ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2512\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Next Address America\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-30T19:09:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a4840e0eb2094ec31aed2107d53108b3\"},\"headline\":\"Midterm victory comes down to one very angry demographic: analysis\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-30T19:09:24+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512\"},\"wordCount\":455,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cd2a8d8ffc074bea1c63a42ec04a6bd.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nextaddressamerica.com\\\/?p=2512\",\"name\":\"Midterm victory comes down to one very angry demographic: analysis - 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