{"id":2075,"date":"2026-06-23T06:06:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T06:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2075"},"modified":"2026-06-23T06:06:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T06:06:39","slug":"trumps-secret-edge-and-the-one-factor-polls-kept-missing-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2075","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s secret edge \u2014 and the one factor polls kept missing in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

When President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, much of the political world was shocked \u2014 but a new study reveals one forecasting framework that anticipated that outcome.<\/p>\n

Read more WSJ reporter won\u2019t put his own money in Trump Accounts \u2014 and says you shouldn\u2019t either<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cMany voters rely on prospective voting, a process of evaluating candidates based on anticipated future performance,\u201d wrote PsyPost’s Karina Petrova on Monday. \u201cResearchers have found that these forward-looking assessments become a primary driver of voter behavior in open-seat contests. Voters look ahead at what policies and leadership styles the new candidates might bring to the office.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a study led by Macromedia University of Applied Sciences researcher Andreas Graefe, the scientists created a so-called \u201cIssues and Leaders model\u201d to figure out why voters make the choices they do rather than simply profiling their support for different candidates at specific points in time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Issues and Leaders model focuses entirely on two variables: issue-handling competence and leadership perception,\u201d Petrova explained. \u201cTo calculate issue-handling scores, the model requires three conditions to be met. Voters must be aware of an issue, they must perceive it as important, and they must trust one candidate more than the other to manage it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The study revealed that near the end of the 2024 election between Harris and Trump, the Democrat actually had a slight advantage over Trump when it came to perceptions of her overall competence, even though she initially trailed Trump by 20 points in July (when she first entered the campaign).<\/p>\n

\u201cThe final forecast generated by the model on Election Eve predicted a near tie, with Trump receiving 50.2 percent of the two-party popular vote and Harris receiving 49.8 percent,\u201d Petrova wrote. \u201cThis cautious projection stood in contrast to many conventional polling averages, which generally showed Harris retaining a slight lead. Ultimately, Trump won the national popular vote by approximately 1.5 percentage points.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018Kook heaven\u2019: Pro-Trump org descends into chaos as staff mysteriously resigns<\/a><\/p>\n

In short, it seems that Harris was able to close the gap between herself and Trump, but simply did not have enough time to do so fully.<\/p>\n

In the paper, which was published in the scholarly journal Research and Politics, argued that its conclusions can be used to anticipate future election results.<\/p>\n

\u201cA particularly notable insight is the role of leadership perception in forecasting Trump\u2019s narrow victory,\u201d Graefe wrote. \u201cWhile Harris held a modest edge on issue competence, Trump maintained a consistent lead in leadership perception\u2014a factor that gained predictive weight closer to the election. The model anticipated Trump\u2019s advantage before most polling averages reflected it, highlighting its potential to signal electoral dynamics that might otherwise be overlooked.\u201d<\/p>\n

Graefe added, \u201cBeyond forecasting accuracy, the model offers practical value by providing a real-time lens into campaign dynamics. By emphasizing prospective voting, it helps identify evolving voter priorities and candidate strengths. This makes it a potentially useful tool not just for forecasters, but also for campaign strategists, journalists, and political observers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Earlier on Monday, The Guardian reported that the coalition which elected Trump is starting to fray. Citing numbers from the 2024 election, it pointed out that “Trump won 66 percent of white voters without a college degree.” Today, though, it found via a CBS News poll that “54 percent of that demographic disapprove of his performance. That was up from 45 percent disapproval in February (before Trump began bombing Iran) and up sharply from 32 percent in February 2025.”<\/p>\n

Read more Trump\u2019s DOJ is on a collision course with Texas landowners<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, much of the political world was shocked \u2014 but a new study reveals one forecasting framework that anticipated that outcome.\u201cMany voters rely on prospective voting, a process of evaluating candidates based on antic…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2074,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump's secret edge \u2014 and the one factor polls kept missing in 2024 - Next Address America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nextaddressamerica.com\/?p=2075\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump's secret edge \u2014 and the one factor polls kept missing in 2024 - 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